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Statistical and Probabilistic Extensions to Ground Operations' Discrete Event Simulation Modeling

机译:地面行动离散事件模拟建模的统计和概率扩展

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摘要

NASA's human exploration initiatives will invest in technologies, public/private partnerships, and infrastructure, paving the way for the expansion of human civilization into the solar system and beyond. As it is has been for the past half century, the Kennedy Space Center will be the embarkation point for humankind's journey into the cosmos. Functioning as a next generation space launch complex, Kennedy's launch pads, integration facilities, processing areas, launch and recovery ranges will bustle with the activities of the world's space transportation providers. In developing this complex, KSC teams work through the potential operational scenarios: conducting trade studies, planning and budgeting for expensive and limited resources, and simulating alternative operational schemes. Numerous tools, among them discrete event simulation (DES), were matured during the Constellation Program to conduct such analyses with the purpose of optimizing the launch complex for maximum efficiency, safety, and flexibility while minimizing life cycle costs. Discrete event simulation is a computer-based modeling technique for complex and dynamic systems where the state of the system changes at discrete points in time and whose inputs may include random variables. DES is used to assess timelines and throughput, and to support operability studies and contingency analyses. It is applicable to any space launch campaign and informs decision-makers of the effects of varying numbers of expensive resources and the impact of off nominal scenarios on measures of performance. In order to develop representative DES models, methods were adopted, exploited, or created to extend traditional uses of DES. The Delphi method was adopted and utilized for task duration estimation. DES software was exploited for probabilistic event variation. A roll-up process was used, which was developed to reuse models and model elements in other less - detailed models. The DES team continues to innovate and expand DES capabilities to address KSC's planning needs.
机译:NASA的人类探索计划将投资于技术,公共/私人合作伙伴关系和基础设施,为人类文明向太阳系及其他地区的扩展铺平道路。就像过去半个世纪以来一样,肯尼迪航天中心将成为人类进入宇宙之旅的登机点。作为下一代太空发射中心,肯尼迪的发射台,集成设施,处理区域,发射和回收范围将随着世界空间运输提供商的活动而热闹。在开发此复杂系统时,KSC团队会研究潜在的操作场景:进行贸易研究,为昂贵且有限的资源进行计划和预算以及模拟替代操作方案。在星座计划期间,许多工具(包括离散事件仿真(DES))已经成熟,可以进行此类分析,目的是优化发射系统,以实现最大的效率,安全性和灵活性,同时将生命周期成本降至最低。离散事件仿真是一种基于计算机的建模技术,用于复杂和动态的系统,其中,系统的状态在离散的时间点发生变化,其输入可能包含随机变量。 DES用于评估时间表和吞吐量,并支持可操作性研究和应急分析。它适用于任何太空发射活动,并告知决策者各种数量的昂贵资源的影响以及不正常的情况对绩效衡量的影响。为了开发具有代表性的DES模型,采用,开发或创建了一些方法来扩展DES的传统用法。采用了德尔菲方法并将其用于任务工期估计。 DES软件被用于概率事件变化。使用了汇总过程,该过程被开发为在其他较不详细的模型中重用模型和模型元素。 DES团队将继续创新和扩展DES功能,以满足KSC的计划需求。

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